“It’s not realistic”: Van Aert’s coach explains why he can’t wait for Evenepoel if he wants to win the World Championships

Wout van Aert arrives at the World Championship in Montreal with good feelings after the Vuelta a España, but the course poses an obvious problem for his aspirations. His coach, Mathieu Heijboer, believes that waiting until the last lap to measure himself directly against Remco Evenepoel, Isaac Del Toro, or Paul Seixas would considerably reduce his options. And that reading also opens up the great tactical dilemma for Belgium on how to use Van Aert without harming Evenepoel's chances.

Van Aert may need to attack before the last lap to win the World Championship

The strategy of Wout van Aert could involve doing the opposite of waiting for the sprint. Mathieu Heijboer, his coach at Visma Lease a Bike, explained to Het Laatste Nieuws that a race too controlled until the last lap would likely be one of the worst scenarios for the Belgian.

"We have to be honest: if Wout waits until the last lap and tries to follow Remco, Seixas, or Del Toro, it is unrealistic to expect that he can fight for the world title", Heijboer explains.

His reasoning aligns quite well with what Evenepoel himself explained after competing in the GP of Montreal. Remco pointed out then that the duration and difficulty of the climbs particularly penalize heavier riders like Van Aert or Mathieu van der Poel. The Belgian even estimated that the average weight of the top ten in the GP of Montreal could be around 63-65 kilos.

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Therefore, for Heijboer, relying solely on Van Aert's final speed carries a significant risk. To compete in a sprint, he would first have to survive a last lap contested at maximum effort on the climbs.

"A very closed race, where everyone waits until the last lap, does not favor Wout, nor does it favor Mathieu van der Poel and many other riders, because the uphill effort becomes too demanding", he asserts.

According to Van Aert's coach, such a scenario would particularly benefit Evenepoel, Seixas, and Del Toro.

The alternative for Van Aert is to move the race from afar

Everything points to Van Aert being interested in breaking the race up earlier. Not necessarily through a solo attack, but by trying to get into moves that force other favorites to work and allow him to reach the final laps within a selected group without having to respond directly to the climbers at the moment of maximum difficulty.

The Vuelta has also shown signs that Van Aert is willing to race this way. His two stage victories came from breakaways, and during the Spanish race, he also made moves from very far out.

Heijboer believes that physically he is prepared to try. Van Aert finished the Vuelta tired, but after a couple of quiet days, he returned to training normally.

"He is incredibly motivated for this World Championship and has physically recovered well," his coach assures.

His season has also changed perspective after winning Paris-Roubaix. According to Heijboer, that victory has not diminished his competitive hunger, and Van Aert approaches Montreal as another of the major objectives of the year.

The problem for Belgium: what benefits Van Aert may not benefit Evenepoel

Here comes the most interesting part from a tactical point of view. Belgium arrives in Montreal with two leaders whose best races could unfold differently.

Van Aert seems to need movement before the last lap. Evenepoel, on the other hand, can afford to wait longer because the final climbs suit his characteristics better.

The Belgian selector, Serge Pauwels, has summarized his objective quite clearly in statements to RTBF:

"I want to maximize Belgium's chances. Not Remco's chances or Wout's chances."

The intention is to be able to play both cards without one ending up neutralizing the other. On paper, there is a simple formula that positions Evenepoel as the man to attack and Van Aert waiting behind, ready to resolve a finish from a reduced group. But as we have already mentioned, if Van Aert waits too long, he could find himself out of contention precisely when Evenepoel and the climbers harden the race.

That is why there is also an inverse approach in which Van Aert could be one of those tasked with anticipating, getting into moves before the final laps. This would force other teams to take on the chase while Evenepoel could stay on the wheel of Del Toro, Seixas, and the other favorites waiting for his moment.

It would be a way to utilize the different characteristics of the two leaders instead of trying to keep them together until the end.

Belgium wants to avoid another conflict between Van Aert and Evenepoel

The coexistence between the two inevitably recalls the World Championship in Leuven 2021, when Van Aert arrived as the main Belgian reference, but Evenepoel's aggressive racing style later generated significant debate about whether his moves had ultimately harmed his teammate's chances.

A year later, in Wollongong, something different happened. Evenepoel attacked from afar and ended up being crowned world champion, while Van Aert remained within the chasing group and finished fourth.

Montreal presents Belgium with a similar problem again, although with two much more experienced riders and a team that seems determined to prevent their interests from crossing.