How cycling teams search for the next Pogačar: the data used to identify future stars

Finding the next Tadej Pogačar has become one of the major goals for professional cycling teams. To achieve this, top teams are increasingly looking at younger riders and using analytical tools that go far beyond race results. Power numbers, fatigue resistance, and even physical and psychological maturity can make all the difference when identifying a future star.

What data do teams use to find the next Pogačar?

Cycling has always had its dominant champions: riders capable of racking up wins and becoming sporting and commercial figureheads for their teams. However, the competitive level in the peloton has risen considerably over the past few decades, as reflected in average race speeds and the times recorded on many of the sport's major climbs.

Against this backdrop, finding riders capable of making a difference has become one of the teams' top priorities. It is no longer enough to wait for a promising young rider to stand out in the main under-23 races. Teams now try to identify that potential much earlier, sometimes during a rider's first years in the lower age categories.

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Traditionally, a cyclist's development followed a relatively well-defined path through the cadet, junior and amateur categories, the latter now largely falling under the under-23 umbrella. It was at this final stage that many riders began seriously considering a professional career, with results in certain races potentially opening the door to a team.

That model is changing. Many of the leading WorldTour teams now have development squads and talent-identification programs that allow them to sign increasingly younger riders, monitor their progress and prepare them for a possible move up to the top level.

But how can teams tell whether a 16- or 17-year-old has what it takes to become a star?

The answer starts with performance data. The famous watts per kilogram (W/kg) remain one of the key benchmarks, particularly when assessing climbing potential. However, teams do not simply look at how much power a rider can produce for five, 10 or 20 minutes.

They also analyze the rider's entire power profile, from explosive efforts to sustained efforts, and take absolute power output into account. This is essential when assessing performance on terrain where the power-to-weight ratio is less decisive, such as flat roads or time trials.

One example of this approach can be found at Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe. John Wakefield, the team's head of talent development, has explained how its scouting system combines race results, physiological profiles, training history and other factors that cannot be reduced to a single power figure.

One metric that has gained prominence is durability — a rider's ability to keep producing high power outputs after accumulating a substantial amount of work.

Producing 400 watts for several minutes at the start of a ride is not the same as doing so after four or five hours of racing. That is why teams study how a rider's power profile deteriorates as fatigue builds.

This type of analysis uses accumulated-work benchmarks that can reach 3,000 kJ, although there is no universal figure that determines a rider's level. Total energy expenditure, its relationship to body weight and the intensity of the efforts are all variables that help put the results into context.

All of this complements other traditional physiological measurements, such as VO2 max and intensity thresholds, providing a much more complete picture of a rider's potential.

Talent is about more than watts

Teams know that exceptional physical attributes do not guarantee success at the professional level. That is why, alongside data analysis, they also pay close attention to a rider's psychological profile and racing skills.

The ability to handle pressure, discipline, motivation and attitude in the face of adversity are all important factors when selecting young riders. Tactical intelligence and the ability to read what is happening during a race matter too.

A rider may post impressive power numbers but still struggle to position themselves in the peloton, manage their efforts or anticipate a decisive attack.

Technical ability is another key factor. Bike handling, confidence on descents and the ability to cope with difficult situations can make a difference that no power meter can capture.

Another particularly important consideration when assessing such young riders is their level of physical maturity and how much room they still have to develop.

Two riders of the same age can be at very different stages of biological development. A rider who matures earlier may achieve better results in the junior categories, but that does not necessarily mean they will have greater potential once both reach adulthood.

Training history is another factor. There is a difference between a young rider posting exceptional numbers after several years of highly demanding training programs and one achieving similar results with a much lighter training load.

In the latter case, performance staff may identify particularly interesting room for improvement, although there is no guarantee that the rider will progress more than someone who is already training at a high level.

Physiological assessments can also include various hematological parameters, such as total hemoglobin mass, which provide further insight into characteristics related to oxygen transport. Teams may also study adaptations to altitude training, although these vary considerably from one individual to another and cannot, on their own, predict an athlete's future performance.

The goal is to bring all this information together to distinguish between a young rider who is already exceptionally competitive and one who, in addition to being competitive, has the attributes to keep improving over the coming years.

Paul Seixas, an example of a talent-development bet paying off

One of the main advantages of these talent-identification programs is that they allow teams to develop their own prospects before they become highly sought-after riders on the transfer market.

Although running a development program requires considerable investment, getting it right with a young rider can save a team from having to pay a much higher transfer fee later on.

One of the best recent examples of this strategy is Paul Seixas. The Frenchman joined the development structure of what is now Decathlon CMA CGM in 2023, when he was just 16, and his progress has confirmed many of the expectations surrounding him.

His 2026 season has established him among the peloton's biggest names. Victories at Il Lombardia, La Flèche Wallonne and Itzulia, along with a fourth-place finish at the Tour de France, have shown that the young Frenchman can already compete at the highest level against the world's best riders.

His case also illustrates how talent identification has changed. Decathlon did not have to wait for Seixas to make his mark as a professional before bringing him into the team structure. Instead, it began working with him several years before his major results arrived.

Other names are also attracting the attention of leading international teams. Among the standout young Spanish prospects are riders such as Marcos Freire, Adrià Pericas, Héctor Álvarez and Benjamín Noval, all of whom still have a significant part of their sporting development ahead of them.

The challenge for teams is to identify which of these young riders will be able to transfer their abilities to professional cycling and continue progressing over time.

Because no matter how much data teams analyze or how sophisticated their talent-identification systems become, finding the next Pogačar remains a gamble with no guarantee of success. The difference is that teams now have far more tools at their disposal to try to get it right.