Who benefits from the route of the Tour de France 2025?

After knowing the route that the Tour de France 2025 will have, bets regarding who could be its future winner have not been long in appearing. Obviously, both Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard start, with still a couple of months to go before the start of the new season, as the top favorites simply for being the best stage racers of today and the winners of the last 5 editions.

A Tour de France 2025 for climbers

Talking about whether the route of a grand tour favors one cyclist or another is as old as cycling itself, and the Tour de France 2025 could not escape it. An edition that brings back a more traditional race format, with the race entirely focused on France and with the mountains centered in the Pyrenees and Alps that will be the protagonists of the second and third week, with a first week that is not decisive for the classification which will bring back a start of the race full of nerves, falls, and, who knows, maybe some withdrawals.

However, one parameter usually determines if a grand tour favors one type of cyclist over another, and that is the volume and type of time trials. In fact, more than talking about who benefits from this Tour de France 2025, we should talk about who it does not benefit. Here there is a clear name: Remco Evenepoel.

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Among the top stage racers, Remco Evenepoel is currently the best time trialist. However, in this Tour de France 2025, he will have barely 33 kilometers in the first week to try to make differences. It is true that it is a time trial very favorable to specialists, but the fact that it comes so early in the Tour de France means that the riders' strengths are more intact and, presumably, the differences will be smaller.

After this time trial, in the second week, the cyclists will have to face a tough uphill time trial to Peyragudes which, obviously, is not an advantage for specialists in individual time trials but clearly favors the best climbers, and the Belgian is not the best in that aspect. In fact, in his first statements after knowing the route, Remco made it clear "the time trial will not be very important for the general classification because there will still be many stages and mountains ahead" with a tone of frustration knowing that he will have a very difficult time trying to win the race.

Especially if we consider the great toughness accumulated in the mountain stages with two real tough stages in the Pyrenees, another two high mountain stages in the Alps, and, in between, the Mont Ventoux which alone is capable of making differences in a single climb stage. An ideal scenario for the two best climbers of today, as well as the winners of the last five editions of the Tour de France such as Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar who, if no incidents occur in their preparation like the fall in Liege that affected the Slovenian in 2023 or the tough fall that the Danish suffered in the Itzulia this season, both should be the main protagonists in the fight for victory.

What could make the difference for the yellow jersey to lean towards one side or the other? On one hand, the medium mountain stages like the one that will end the last week in the heart of the Massif Central. A classic-style stage where Tadej Pogacar excels.

On the other hand, the high mountains of the Tour de France 2025 will be decided on climbs of classic nature like the linked Tourmalet, Aspin, Peyresourde, Superbageneres in the Pyrenees; or the Glandon, Madeleine, Col de la Loze that we will experience in the Alps, a type of ascent where having a solid team is vital. Here, Jonas Vingegaard's advantage to put pressure on his rival lies in being able to count on a Wout van Aert in great shape again, a cyclist capable of leading a peloton on those endless climbs or sneaking into breakaways even in the high mountains to be able to be with his leader in the decisive moments as we saw him do in the stage that ended in Hautacam in the Tour three years ago.

In any case, if both cyclists arrive in top form at the Tour de France 2025, the route will not be the determining factor for one or the other, and the race will be decided by small details such as, for example, if Jonas Vingegaard decides to tackle the Giro d'Italia, a race that Tadej Pogacar will not participate in, with the fatigue that it may generate.