What can we expect in the last week of La Vuelta 2024?

As in any work, the Vuelta a España is approaching the conclusion of a plot that has offered us its twists and has been growing in intensity. What remains in the last week we can imagine beforehand, a Primoz Roglic who has shown himself to be the strongest in the race but has also shown signs of not being super. Who knows if in the end we will not have an unexpected outcome. This is what awaits us in the remaining 6 stages.

Don't leave yet, there is still a lot of Vuelta a España 2024

With a tremendously tight general classification, with just 3 minutes difference between the first and the fifth, the scenarios that arise for the last week of the Vuelta a España 2024 are varied.

First of all, mention what the cyclists will have to overcome from now until next Sunday. 6 stages where they will only find a friendlier terrain, not easy, on the Wednesday stage that finishes in Santander. To start with, tomorrow, after the rest day, an indigestible menu with Lagos de Covadonga that is preceded by the ascent to Collada Llomena. An identical finish to the one that Primoz Roglic used to practically secure his victory in the 2021 Vuelta.

On Thursday, another medium mountain stage that could be very interesting due to the location of the tough Herrera pass 40 kilometers from the finish, although, most likely, it will be a stage with prominence in the breakaway. Mostly because after this stage, two intense stages await. The first one, through the lands of La Rioja, a single-climb route with a finish in Moncalvillo that will serve as an appetizer to the real queen stage of the 2024 Vuelta.

A terrifying route through Cantabrian lands with no less than 7 ascents, each one tougher than the last, and the devastating final on the steep ramps of Picón Blanco. And, if there is still something to be decided, a very fast time trial in the streets of Madrid, perfect for the specialists in individual time trial to gain a good amount of seconds over their rivals.

Anything is possible

Obviously, logic dictates that this will be Primoz Roglic's thing, who day by day is nibbling at the gap that separates him from Ben O'Connor and is now only 43 seconds away from the lead. If everything goes as planned, Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe would only need to control the race and let Primoz Roglic continue to gain seconds in the three remaining mountain finishes, knowing that in the time trial in Madrid he has, a priori, an advantage over his rivals to build a cushion with which to win without worries, focusing only on not making mistakes.

However, yesterday's stage with the finish at Cuitu Negro left us doubts about the condition with which Primoz Roglic enters the last week of the 2024 Vuelta. Remember that, as happened to Jonas Vingegaard in the Tour, he is recovering from a serious fall in the French race, which even put his participation in the Vuelta in doubt until a few days before the start. It is not impossible that the race could become too long for him and, with the classification so tight, a mistake on any day would be decisive for his chances.

In the event of a mistake by Primoz Roglic, the one who seems most likely to take the red jersey is Enric Mas, who has been the only one so far able to follow Primoz Roglic's wheel, although this has meant, as the other day in Ancares, eventually giving up. It is not a guarantee of solidity either, as despite being in good form, the mountain finishes are becoming too long for him and he does not show signs of having an attack in his legs to gain differences. Especially considering his always poor performance in the time trial, which is a tough handicap for the final stage in Madrid.

Richard Carapaz is also offering very good sensations, facing a scenario very similar to Enric Mas but with slightly less mountain prowess to be at the front. However, in Carapaz's case, we are dealing with a tremendously brave rider who will surely try to go down fighting and it is not impossible that he could give us an offensive move like the one that propelled him to his current position in the general classification in the Sierra Nevada stage.

Mikel Landa, despite the die-hard fans believing he has a stellar performance up his sleeve, the truth is that, as demonstrated yesterday with his attack in Pajares, he falls short. He is well placed, ambitious, but his legs can only do so much. That and his limited capacity in the time trial make it very difficult for him to progress beyond the fifth place he currently holds.

Lastly, we have the leader of the 2024 Vuelta, Ben O'Connor. The Australian, whom many did not expect to hold onto the lead beyond Sierra Nevada, is managing to resist with a very limited team around him. In the mountain finishes, he knows he can't keep up with the front runners and no longer tries to respond to Roglic's attacks but instead has the composure to let him go, set his own pace, and through suffering, try to stretch his already slim lead like a piece of gum.

Obviously, his seconds are running out and all his options rely on a mistake by Roglic, which, as mentioned above, is not impossible. In that case, even though the rest of the favorites have also been reducing his time, the gaps are still significant and there is not such a big difference in the mountains to not hold onto hope. Furthermore, in the time trial, the situation would be more or less equal if it came down to a tight margin of seconds with them in the end.

In fact, we could be facing a scenario where Roglic falters in one of the remaining mountain stages and everything is decided among non-time trial specialists, in the final stage and precisely on the goat, in just a handful of seconds. Undoubtedly, the dream ending for Javier Guillen.