What can we expect in the Tour de France after what has happened in the Dauphiné?

The Critérium du Dauphiné ended, the dress rehearsal for the upcoming Tour de France 2025 which will start on June 5th, with Tadej Pogacar strengthening his position as the top favorite to win his fourth yellow jersey in Paris. However, the Slovenian also had moments of doubt that could be a glimmer of hope for his top rivals.

Tadej Pogacar emerges from the Critérium du Dauphiné even more favored for the Tour de France

Tadej Pogacar fulfilled all expectations in the Critérium du Dauphiné, achieving an undeniable victory that puts pressure on Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel, the only ones who seem to be approaching the stratospheric level of the Slovenian cyclist.

Despite starting the Critérium du Dauphiné with Jonas Vingegaard appearing to be his main rival, unexpectedly attacking in the final part of stage 1 on a flat section, causing a split that determined the stage winner, and having to settle for second place behind a Tadej Pogacar more accustomed to winning in such situations.

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Tadej Pogacar also raised doubts in the 17-kilometer time trial of the Critérium du Dauphiné, where Remco Evenepoel met expectations and flew, gaining a significant advantage over his rivals, although ultimately not enough to keep the yellow jersey in the following stages where the Belgian still lacks the change of pace that his competitors possess. However, alarms went off for Tadej Pogacar as he lost 48 seconds to Remco and 28 seconds to Jonas Vingegaard, who would have been much closer to the time set by the Soudal-QuickStep rider if not for a mechanical issue towards the end.

However, Tadej Pogacar wasted no time in asserting his dominance with the arrival of the first mountain finish, a first alpine stage ending in Combloux where the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider didn't even need to unleash one of his violent attacks. A simple change of pace, without standing up on the pedals, was enough to drop Jonas Vingegaard with ease, while the Dane struggled on his bike. Meanwhile, Remco didn't even attempt to match those deadly accelerations and maintained an excellent pace to minimize losses, although it was insufficient to retain the yellow jersey.

The next day, in the stage that introduced the finish in Valmeinier, after conquering iconic climbs like Madeleine and Croix de Fer, a similar scenario unfolded but this time Tadej Pogacar, despite launching a long-range attack, showed signs of fatigue and only managed to gain 14 seconds on Jonas Vingegaard. In the final stage of the race, with the ascent to the colossal Mont Cenis, Tadej Pogacar simply responded to a timid attack from the Visma-Lease a Bike rider and allowed Lenny Martinez to successfully complete the day's breakaway.

These minor doubts left by Tadej Pogacar despite his resounding victory offer a glimmer of hope that, in a three-week race like the Tour de France, the competition could be challenging for the Slovenian. However, beyond this, the more concerning issue is that, right from the start, Visma-Lease a Bike clearly outperformed the UAE Team Emirates-XRG team.

In crucial moments of the stages, Jonas Vingegaard had the support of Sepp Kuss and Matteo Jorgenson, and in the Tour de France, they will be joined by Wout van Aert. On the other hand, Tadej Pogacar lost his teammates early on. While he had good support in the arrival at Combloux, in the other two mountain stages, having a classics rider like Tim Wellens as his last man raises doubts about the team's level for the Tour. Novak, Sivakov, and Marc Soler did not perform up to par in the Critérium du Dauphiné, and only Narváez and Wellens met the expectations for the Tour de France.

There are still 3 weeks until the start of the Tour de France, and it is likely that neither Tadej Pogacar nor his teammates are in peak form yet, but presumably, the same applies to their rivals. Additionally, drawing conclusions from a Critérium du Dauphiné where the mountain stages did not exceed 130 kilometers is challenging.

Nevertheless, Tadej Pogacar has made the first statement by showing that he can also measure his efforts and be strategic when the situation is not entirely favorable. It seems unlikely that a situation like the one in the 2022 Tour de France stage to Col du Granon, where the Slovenian struggled to respond to attacks, will be repeated. However, Jonas Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike, despite not being able to match Pogacar head-on, have shown that they can create race situations in their favor. The Tour de France looks more challenging for Remco Evenepoel, who still struggles in high mountains and has a much weaker team, especially after the withdrawal of Mikel Landa, to support him during the Tour. Based on what we have seen, the predictions suggest that, barring the emergence of an unlikely third contender like Florian Lipowitz, who showed great strength throughout the Dauphiné, the podium of the 2025 Tour de France could be similar to last year's edition.