Pogacar vs Evenepoel, who is the favorite in the Time Trial World Championship?

If the online test of the 2025 Kigali Cycling World Championship is expected to be exciting, the time trial that will open the competition this coming Sunday, September 21, will be no less so. On one side, Renco Evenepoel, who is aiming for his third consecutive gold medal in the specialty, and on the other, Tadej Pogacar, who signed up for the time trial at the last minute and is looking to achieve the first time trial-road race double that no one has accomplished in the history of the World Championships.

Can Pogacar dethrone Evenepoel in the World Championship time trial?

Despite being more of a specialist and the winner of the rainbow jersey in the last two World Championships, the presence of Tadej Pogacar in the starting line of the time trial at the 2025 Kigali World Championship has made the outcome of the race extremely uncertain. In fact, even the betting houses place the Slovenian cyclist as the favorite over the Belgian for the victory in the time trial.

Not even Remco Evenepoel himself is completely confident and confessed a few days ago: "When Tadej sets his mind to something, it means he is ready to achieve it. I am looking forward to the battle. Hopefully it won't be too fierce, but he is a great rival and now it's my turn to defend the rainbow jersey."

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The main disadvantage for Remco Evenepoel comes from the toughness of the Kigali World Championship course, with a total elevation gain of 680 meters over just over 40 kilometers, and very little flat and straight terrain where a time trial specialist like him can make use of his individual time trial abilities.

Meanwhile, Tadej Pogacar is excited about this course, which includes interesting sections like the cobbled climb towards the end that could make a significant difference for a cyclist who has already won two Tour of Flanders races. "It's a quite difficult circuit but on a good day, it suits me perfectly. Of course, something could happen that prevents me from achieving a good result, but I am very motivated to be the best on that day."

This season, Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel have faced each other in three time trials. The first one, at the Critérium du Dauphiné, over 16 completely flat kilometers, was won by the Belgian with a 48-second difference. However, in the flat time trial at the Tour de France in Caen, covering a longer distance of 33 km and much flatter than the Dauphiné, Evenepoel, despite finishing ahead, could only distance the Slovenian by 16 seconds. Then came the uphill time trial to Peyragudes, where Pogacar delivered a tremendous performance that left Remco 2 minutes and 19 seconds behind.

Despite the toughness of the Kigali course, which clearly favors Pogacar, Remco remains optimistic. "The slopes of the climbs are not very steep, so you can maintain enough speed on them for aerodynamics to be important," said the Belgian cyclist, emphasizing the relevance of aerodynamics, especially on descents.

Another crucial factor could be the altitude at which the race takes place, between 1,500 and 1,700 meters. Neither Tadej Pogacar nor Remco Evenepoel have trained at altitude after the Tour de France, so they will depend on their natural ability to perform in conditions with less oxygen and, above all, adjust their pacing during the race to avoid overexertion and prevent the race from becoming too long.

With all these aspects in play, it is undeniable that the battle between these two giants could be one to remember for years to come. Don't miss it: Sunday, September 21, starting at 13:45 CET.