Can O'Connor win La Vuelta 2024?

After the earthquake that occurred yesterday in the classification of La Vuelta a España 2024, with Ben O'Connor betting on champion, this morning the world of cycling woke up with the aftermath of the spectacle enjoyed the previous day and a common question, will he be able to resist until Madrid with the red jersey on his shoulders? Let's analyze how the race stands.

Ben O'Connor determined to resist until the end with the red jersey, will he achieve it?

A day of reflection and rethinking the race for the teams involved in the fight for the general classification of La Vuelta a España 2024 after the setback that many suffered from Ben O'Connor's spectacular breakaway and victory. In fact, the statements made by the director of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe after the stage were eloquent, stating that they let the breakaway go with the intention of Florian Lipowitz getting ahead in the general classification to unsettle the rest of the teams, and they did not expect Ben O'Connor's performance.

The official version of Patxi Villa spoke more through his silence than through those statements, as one only had to see his face while expressing them to realize that there was genuine concern in the team regarding what had just happened.

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It is not surprising, as we cannot forget that Ben O'Connor is not a second-tier cyclist who finds himself with the opportunity of his life by being in the right place at the right time. The Australian cyclist already finished in fourth position in the 2021 Tour de France, albeit 10 minutes behind Tadej Pogacar, the winner of that edition. The same result was achieved this year in the Giro d'Italia, where he finished 12 minutes behind the Slovenian. In any case, achieving that position in the general classification implies that he is a solid cyclist in a three-week race.

On the other hand, the history of La Vuelta a España plays in favor of Ben O'Connor, just last year we had Sepp Kuss's ride to Javalambre, where, like Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale's, he managed to take the lead and maintain it, not without difficulty, until Madrid. Also remembered after yesterday's stage was the 1990 edition won by Italian Marco Giovannetti, a cyclist from the modest Seur team who, thanks to the time gained in a breakaway, managed to conquer the yellow jersey at the time.

Returning to Sepp Kuss's victory last year, there is another important factor to consider. The American had the support of a powerful Jumbo-Visma team that managed to win the three Grand Tours in 2023 and with two of the best cyclists in the world as his support, Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard. However, in the final stages of La Vuelta, the internal division over which cyclist should take the victory became evident, leading to Primoz Roglic's departure from the team.

Obviously, Ben O'Connor's Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale is not Visma, but we cannot forget that it is a very serious team that has accumulated 30 victories so far this season. For this Vuelta 2024, they have solid cyclists like Valentin Paret-Pentre, Victor Lafay, Felix Gall, Geoffrey Bouchard, or Bruno Armirail who have the necessary experience to support their leader, at least until the high mountains make their appearance.

This is one of the main doubts regarding Ben O'Connor's performance in the coming days, as in the first mountain stage a couple of days ago with the finish at Pico Villuercas, he finished the stage in twenty-third position, 1 minute and 11 seconds behind Primoz Roglic, adding to the 52 seconds he lost in the first day's time trial. In other editions of La Vuelta, it could be said without a doubt that he would be able to resist, however, in this 2024 edition, there is a lot of mountainous terrain and specific stages that will demand a lot from the Australian, starting with this Sunday's stage in Sierra Nevada.

He will then have to deal with tough stages like Ancares, the two stages in Asturias, and, above all, the penultimate stage in Cantabrian lands with a truly challenging route. Furthermore, he will also have to overcome another time trial longer than the initial one, with a route through the wide avenues of Madrid and few technical difficulties that will favor the specialists.

At first glance, not a very promising scenario for Ben O'Connor, although there are also factors that play in his favor beyond the surprises that have already occurred in the history of this race.

His main advantage is the equality among the favorite cyclists, at least as demonstrated in Pico Villuercas, which could turn the race into a true battle of wits, with others trying to test O'Connor's strength, who will likely adopt a more passive role in defense of the red jersey. There are also doubts about Primoz Roglic's true form, as many have analyzed yesterday's events as a result of the Slovenian not having a good day and the team not being able to support him as much as they wanted to avoid revealing his weakness. Let's not forget that Primoz Roglic was practically a doubt until the last available day to announce the team lineup due to the vertebra fracture he suffered in the Tour de France.

On the other hand, Primoz Roglic seems to be the only cyclist with a clearly offensive mentality, and it is really difficult for us to see cyclists like Enric Mas or Joao Almeida launching attacks to overthrow the Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale cyclist.

In any case, this race situation opens up a range of possibilities that will surely result in a much more interesting race, where we will see what alternatives the other contenders can offer and how Ben O'Connor can defend himself with almost the entire La Vuelta ahead of him.