“Between 50 seconds and 1:20”: Movistar estimates how much time Enric could lose to Roglič in the time trial

Enric Mas will face one of the most important days of his sports career this Thursday. The 32.5 kilometers of time trial between El Puerto de Santa María and Jerez de la Frontera appear as a great opportunity for Primoz Roglic to attack the lead, but Movistar has been preparing for this day for a long time, even estimating how much their leader could lose: between 50 seconds and 1:20 if both perform a time trial at their maximum level.

Movistar calculates how much Mas can lose to Roglic in the time trial

Mas arrives at stage 18 with a 2:10 lead over Roglic and 2:06 over Felix Gall. A margin that allows him to approach the day with some peace of mind, although any bad day could completely change the scenario before the last two mountain stages.

Iván Velasco, performance director of Movistar Team, explained in an interview with MARCA how the team has prepared for the time trial and what their expectations are for the confrontation between Mas and Roglic.

"I was also talking about it with Enric earlier. If Roglic does his maximum time trial and Enric does his maximum time trial, we should be looking at a loss between 50 seconds and 1:20 minutes", Velasco explains.

RECOMENDADO

Roglic sees himself in the “perfect scenario”, but isn’t putting all his hopes on the time trial

“Never this bad before, nor this good now”: Movistar aren’t letting their guard down with Enric Mas six days away from potentially winning La Vuelta

Enric Mas strengthens his lead at La Pandera: Brenner wins and Roglič drops to third

Stage 17 looks tailor-made for Brennan: Seville awaits La Vuelta’s strongest sprinter

The best of Specialized in an extremely limited collection: meet Built for Legends LTD

Visma has the magic sprint formula: Van Aert leads out and Brennan finishes it off to claim his fourth La Vuelta victory

An estimate that, if fulfilled, would allow Mas to leave Jerez still dressed in red and with a significant margin over the Slovenian.

But Velasco also warns that these calculations assume both are capable of performing at the expected level after nearly three weeks of racing.

"If one has a good day and the other doesn't, it can be magnified. And if Roglic is off and Enric is on, that distance can be reduced, as has happened in other time trials. But we believe that is the margin we can work with".

Roglic had already lowered expectations about what he can achieve on this day. The four-time Vuelta winner acknowledged that he doesn't believe the time trial alone will be enough to turn the race upside down, although he has historically always been superior to Mas against the clock.

"I don't like to make a big deal out of the time trial"

Despite everything at stake, Movistar does not want to treat the Jerez stage as something exceptional.

"I don't like to make a big deal out of tomorrow. It's just another time trial. We prepare it in detail like we have for several years. I see Enric calm, we have our plan, and we'll see if it works. Then it depends on the legs," Velasco assures.

The fact that it takes place in stage 18 also introduces a variable that is difficult to calculate. At this point in a grand tour, the numbers obtained during preparation do not always translate to the road.

"Depending on how you arrive, those data can be accurate or not. In the end, each one will have planned the time trial based on their numbers, and Roglic will have his as well. But it will all depend on whether you can extract the maximum you have or if you're a bit below it".

Movistar is also not preparing any last-minute changes. Mas's position, equipment, and effort strategy have been defined for a long time.

"Tomorrow is not about making changes, but about trusting what we have. It has been worked on for a long time, and we know we are in good shape. It's about getting the best time trial that Enric can achieve."

Years of work to improve one of Mas's weak points

The time trial has never been Mas's most favorable specialty, and Movistar has been working for years to reduce losses.

Velasco talks about work done alongside the different brands that equip the team. Gobik has participated in the development of fabrics and competition clothing, ABUS in the helmet, and Canyon in the bike. The team also uses specific handlebars for their riders and has continuously worked on position and aerodynamics.

"The helmet came out last year, and we are very happy. With Canyon, we continue to develop, and next year we will have a new time trial bike, very different and optimized. We have also been designing custom handlebars for the riders for years. Everything has evolved, and I think we are at a good level compared to the competition," Velasco explained to MARCA's microphone.

Mas himself has also improved his approach to these days. According to Movistar's performance manager, time trials have traditionally been an added stress for the Mallorcan, but the first stage of this Vuelta in Monaco left good feelings.

"In Monaco, he did very well. He was calm and executed based on the plan we had prepared. Let's hope tomorrow goes the same way."

Roglic, Küng, and a very open stage victory

Movistar's attention will be focused on Roglic's references, but the fight for the stage victory will have other protagonists.

The 32.5-kilometer route, with long straights and without excessive technical difficulties, favors the great specialists. Stefan Küng is among the riders with the best chances of contesting the win, and the Swiss already knows what it is to win a time trial in La Vuelta, having triumphed in Madrid in 2024. 

Roglic should also be among the strongest. His priority will be to recover as much time as possible over Mas, but a performance at his best level could also put him in the fight for the stage. Alongside them are other specialists capable of challenging for victory, such as Ethan Hayter or Iván Romeo. 

For Movistar, in any case, the reference will be another. Velasco's calculations place the acceptable loss between 50 seconds and 1:20 against a maximum Roglic. If Mas manages to stay within those numbers, he will maintain a significant part of his advantage before returning to the mountains.