Could Vingegaard lose La Vuelta?

We have reached the third week of La Vuelta with what seems to be a perfectly planned strategy by Jonas Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike. A plan aimed at winning the red jersey next Sunday in Madrid and, barring a fall, collapse, or a magical day from Joao Almeida, everything points to it coming to a successful conclusion.

Jonas Vingegaard's flawless plan to win La Vuelta enters its final week

The second week of the race, which featured the most demanding stages in its route, much like the first week, has seen more talk about off-the-field issues than the race itself, which seems to be completely under the control of Visma-Lease a Bike.

Only the stage ending at the fearsome Angliru left a glimmer of hope that La Vuelta could have a different outcome than expected, with Joao Almeida showing his bravest side trying to push Jonas Vingegaard to the limit, adding some excitement to the sporting aspect. The same happened at the Pike Bidea wall in the stage starting and ending in Bilbao, where Tom Pidcock was able to make the Dane suffer in an explosive climb, although ultimately more was said about the incidents at the finish line due to protests against Israel's invasion of Palestine than about the stage itself.

RECOMENDADO

Cyclist obsessions that only those of us who pedal understand

Vali Höll and Jackson Goldstone conquer the 2025 Downhill World Championship in Champéry

Mads Pedersen has already won his stage in La Vuelta 2025

Visible up to 900 meters during the day: that's how the new Trek lights are

Marc Soler gives UAE Team Emirates-XRG the seventh victory in La Vuelta 2025

Kate Courtney and Keegan Swenson win the XCM World Championship 2025

The week started off eventful off the field as well, with a heated argument within UAE Team Emirates-XRG between Juan Ayuso and the team after it was announced, in somewhat strange ways and timing, that the Alicante cyclist would not continue with the Emirati squad next season. Juan Ayuso will now head towards Lidl-Trek and, despite everything, was able to give UAE Team Emirates-XRG a new victory at the finish line in Los Corrales de Buelna.

UAE's victories, 7 out of 15 stages completed, are undoubtedly the most notable aspect of the race, as it contrasts with the fact that leading cyclists of the team like Jay Vine, Marc Soler, or Juan Ayuso are focused on winning individual stages, perhaps leaving their leader Joao Almeida somewhat unprotected at certain moments of the race. This tactic, at least outwardly, raises doubts about the Portuguese's real ability to win the race, leading the team to seek maximum gains on a day-to-day basis.

Looking at the remaining routes throughout this final week, there seems to be no place where Jonas Vingegaard can be challenged, unless an unexpected failure or other external factor occurs.

It is true that the differences between Vingegaard and Almeida remain contained in the general classification, but what remains is a medium mountain stage in Galicia, which, based on how La Vuelta has unfolded, does not seem likely to bring about movements among the favorites; a new stage with a single mountain pass towards Morredero, which, although it is a long and tough climb, Jonas Vingegaard has shown no signs of weakness in similar terrains, especially without the wear and tear of a high mileage day, and the Morredero stage is 143 km long.

Then there is the time trial, where Jonas Vingegaard is the undisputed favorite. Joao Almeida is also a great time trialist, but looking at the time trial in the Tour de France, the Portuguese only outperformed the Dane by a mere 5 seconds, while in the other individual time trial they both competed in this season, at Volta ao Algarve, Vingegaard beat him by a whopping 30 seconds to take the lead and secure the final victory.
Only the typical stage in the Sierra de Guadarrama remains, which, given its route configuration, with Bola del Mundo as the final climb, conditions that movements among the favorites are subject to the toughness of those last 4 kilometers, insufficient terrain to turn the race around at the level at which both cyclists are performing.

Therefore, although La Vuelta tries to sell the excitement factor based on the slim differences between them in the general classification, the truth is that, unless a disaster strikes, La Vuelta 2025 should confirm the initial predictions and fall in favor of Jonas Vingegaard.