Buy now or wait? The 29” MTBs versus the change of cycle

The 29-inch mountain bikes first saw the light in 2001 with the Gary Fisher Supercaliber, a rigid bike that already bet on this wheel size as a real alternative to the ubiquitous 26”. That first appearance made it clear that the larger diameter offered obvious advantages in terms of traction and the ability to roll over obstacles, but it also opened a debate that would take many years to resolve.

29” MTBs have never been so good, will they be?

The adoption of 29” was neither quick nor easy. In the early years (more than 10), brands and users themselves did not see a larger wheel size clearly, which was perceived as a burden both uphill and in handling, especially on technical trails. This was compounded by the industry's lack of commitment, which hesitated between investing in a new size or continuing to bet on 26” and, later, on 27.5”, which were then more popular and easier to sell.

Even without a clear consensus, 29” gradually gained ground. First in rigid bikes and, later, in dual suspension models, until 2016 marked a definitive turning point: Nino Schurter won the XCO World Championship and the Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games with the SCOTT Spark 29”. By then, 29” duals were already common in competition, but brands even maintained the same model in their catalog with options for both wheel sizes. However, that year 2016 can be considered the moment when this size was definitively established in the MTB landscape.

Since then, 29” has become the standard in both XCO and XCM, even in small sizes, which for years was one of the major arguments against it. From there, its evolution has been constant, but not without sacrifices for the user. Changing the wheel size is not a minor update as it forces one to buy a new bike and reinvest in components that were previously acquired to improve performance, such as premium wheels, suspensions, brakes, etc.

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Moreover, the first generations of 29” hit the market without optimized designs. Weights, stiffness, and geometries were far from their ideal point, and those who bought in the early days assumed that their bike would quickly become outdated. A clear example of this evolution was the arrival of the Boost standard, which significantly improved the stiffness of frames and wheels, but also forced a change in frames and left previous forks and wheels incompatible.

At the same time, XC itself has changed radically since 2016. Current bikes are much more capable, with more aggressive geometries, greater stability, and suspension travel that now regularly exceeds 120 mm. All of this has transformed the way of riding and competing, prioritizing overall speed over extreme lightness.

The result of this evolution is that current 29” MTBs are and will likely be the best in history. Refined geometries, frames that optimize stiffness and absorption to the limit, and weights so well balanced that, even being superior to those of years ago, allow for faster riding thanks to better traction and significantly superior downhill performance. In recent years, the arrival of electronics in both transmissions and suspensions has further refined the behavior of components that have evolved at the same pace as the frames.

And why tell all this now? The answer lies in the emergence of 32” wheels, which we are starting to see in recent months. Just as with the 29”, the arrival of a new size is not a simple adjustment and involves changing everything again: frames, suspensions, transmissions, geometries, travel, handlebar widths, and of course, wheels. It does not seem like an improvised move, but rather a sign that 29” has reached a technological maturity where it is no longer possible to achieve significant advances through small changes.

From what we have been able to gather, the adoption of 32” will not last as long as it did with 29”. Brands are reportedly preparing advanced models to compete with them in the World Cup as early as 2026 and, as we mentioned in another article, the ultimate goal would be for a 32” MTB to win the 2028 Olympic Games. Additionally, major brands plan to have their first commercial models throughout 2027.

For all these reasons, it is not far-fetched to say that the best 29” MTBs in history are precisely those we are seeing right now, and in the upcoming seasons, in the catalogs. Even so, it seems evident that 29” will continue to be the majority option for the next few years, and we do not even dare to speculate on how long they will continue to dominate the market. Only time will tell what happens.